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First, let’s talk about the alleged looming
energy crisis. There is no shortage of energy in the
medium term, or even in the long term. Conventional
oil resources will not runout until at least 2050, despite
increasing global demand, and there are enough
coal reserves for centuries. However, we will have a situation
wherewe can’t continue to emit tonnes of CO2,
so we need to find ways to deal with that.
The problem is that everything we are doing today
in order to deal with that is misdirected. We are trying
to cut emissions because it makes us feel good,
but it will have very little impact in the long term.
Even if all of the goals set out under the Kyoto Protocol
were achieved and the US, Australia and China
had ratified the treaty, we would still only postpone
global warming by seven days at the end of the century
and at an estimated cost of $180bn per year.
Right now there’s a huge push to cut emissions and
to buy carbon offsets and replace cheap fossil fuels
with more expensive technologies, but this is a rich
world solution. There are a lot of uncertainties about
the effectiveness of carbon offsetting. Let’s assume
all the schemes worked – the problem remains that
the benefit of not emitting a tonne of CO2 is minimal
compared with the cost, with every $20 spent producing
$2 worth of good.
By comparison, every $1 spent on combating malnutrition
and malaria and supporting HIV/AIDS prevention
and free trade agreements produces between
$10-$40 worth of social good. So, when companies go
out and say “we’re carbon neutral,” they’re effectively
saying “we spent a lot of money doing fairly little
good”. It’s better to say “we care about the world and
we made sure 150,000 people won’t die of malaria”.
If you actually care about the world, then the focus
should not be on cutting or offsetting CO2, but on
making the world a better place. I don’t think it’s too
late for climate change and I don’t think we should give up trying to stave off global warming, but we
need to be smarter about what we do.
Fairytale stories that we can change the outcome
of climate change are hijacking the focus from where
it needs to be. The only way to really avert climate
change is to invest in the development of alternative
energy resources which are much cheaper.
I propose a ten-fold increase in research and development
into renewable sources, from $2.5bn to $25bn.
This would returnanequal increase in benefit to Kyoto
at about a tenthof the cost.
We have to realise that this is a long-term problem
and it won’t get solved in 10, 20 or even 30 years’
time. This is a 50-year problem that needs a longterm
solution.
Right now we all talk about cutting emissions, but
it should not be a predominant focus for companies.
Though you could imagine a lot of corporate investments
in renewable research and development, these
are long-term investments.
If you are a company that cares about the world,
you should ask yourself whether the practices you are
implementing now are actually doing a lot of good, or
do they only look good on your annual report?
Carbon neutral looks good, but it doesn’t do much
good. Companies need to ask the question: “Can’t we
do better?” |